Where do they go to? A competing-risk analysis of the careers of beginning primary and secondary teachers

The teacher shortage in the Netherlands is a major problem and has major implications for the quality of education. The teacher shortage is not evenly distributed among schools, so schools with challenging student populations often have the most difficulty attracting and retaining teachers. This fosters inequality. It is therefore of great importance to reduce the teacher shortage. As the teacher shortage continues to mount, the main focus has become the retention of beginning teachers. However, we see that the dropout rate among beginning teachers is high. To combat the dropout of beginning teachers, better understanding is needed about the careers of beginning teachers. What does the career of teachers look like? When do teachers leave the profession? What do teachers go on to do next? And what factors play into different career paths of primary and secondary teachers?

CBS Microdata is used to map the careers of beginning teachers at the monthly level. The Microdata provides information on person characteristics, job characteristics and school characteristics. By using competing-risk analysis, different destinations in the career paths of beginning teachers can be distinguished. For example, it is possible to examine whether the characteristics associated with teacher attrition due to unemployment differ from those associated with teacher attrition due to a move to the private business sector. The careers of beginning teachers are followed from the time the teacher has acquired the teacher’s degree until 6 months after dropping out of the teaching profession.

The research on the careers of beginning teachers in elementary and secondary schools is currently ongoing. The first results are expected around October/November 2023.